Java, 'Net revenues don't match hype -- yet Java not a significant factor in $27.7 billion development tools market revenue By Sari Kalin, IDG News Service

January  1997

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The overall packaged software market worldwide grew 11.9 percent this year to $105 billion. While hype ballooned around Internet-related applications and Java-based application development tools, they accounted for little of that spending, according to the report. For example, Java accounted for less than $100 million of the $27.7 billion in revenues from the development tools market.

"We are sort of in the infancy of...the evolution of tools for the Internet," said Stephen Hendrick, director of application development tools research at IDC. Given the "minute" amount of revenue derived from Java today, there is bound to be tremendous growth in the near future, Hendrick said. "The big issue is the rate at which Java and Java-related tools become a common part of a developer's stable," Hendrick said. "That could potentially mean tremendous growth for Java or just modest growth for Java."

Overall, according to the report, packaged software growth this year was slowed somewhat compared to last year, due in part to the continued shift to less expensive desktop software and pricing pressures on mainframe software vendors. Despite a slight drop in revenues, IBM remains the No. 1 vendor overall, with $12.5 billion in sales and 11.9 percent of the market. Its market share shrunk 1 percent compared to last year, however, and Microsoft Corp. is gaining on it from the No. 2 spot, with $9.4 billion in sales and 9 percent of the market.

In the $49 billion applications market, Microsoft, IBM, and SAP AG hold the top three spots, the only three vendors posting more than $1 billion in revenue. Computer Associates International Inc. fell behind fast-growing Cadence Design Systems Inc. and Parametric Technology Corp. into the sixth slot. Data warehousing, re-engineering of business processes, vertical markets, and the consumer markets will spur growth in this area; over the next five years, that may be offset by declines in other areas, such as non-client/server enterprise application revenues, leading to a combined annual growth rate of 13 to 14 percent.

IBM tops Microsoft in the $28.2 billion systems software market and the $27.7 billion tools market, although its market share is slipping in both while Microsoft's is gaining. Microsoft has pulled ahead of Oracle Corp. in the tools market, due to the strength of Microsoft Access and Excel, as well as strong growth in Visual Basic and SQL Server. Informix Software Inc., buoyed by its acquisition of Illustra Information Technologies Inc. and its dynamic server architecture, showed the highest growth of all leading tool vendors, pulling ahead of Sybase into fourth place. Over the next five years, the market's combined annual growth rate is expected to be 12 to 13 percent, with Java, end-user oriented tools, and component software expected to factor into that growth.

The systems software market is expected to have a combined annual growth rate of 13 percent through the year 2001. The growth in distributed systems will spur demand for operating systems, system management software, and middleware, according to the report.

--Sari Kalin, IDG News Service, Boston Bureau

Resources

• IDC
  http://www.idcresearch.com

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